I wooden say we are deprived of news but…
Oh, fir Heaven’s sake…
Fir pete’s sake…
You’re already ‘Plankattack’ - what more do you need?
AMC - all I can say:
Well, i’m not quite board of this yet.
Perhaps we should form a splinter group
Some people would clearly be sycamore.
Entirely unpredictable as of yet.
Since my professional life concerns itself with customs and tax politics within the EU, I‘ve been following the Brexit talks closely up to the ‘tunnel’ phase, where only the smallest possible circle was involved and regularly briefed.
The agreement that’s currently debated is highly unlikely to pass, but there is effectively no alternative that could command a majority with MPs. How to unlock this situation is debated just as aggressively as the deal in question. If it can be done at all it’s still likely to leave the country torn and at least half the public bitter and resentful.
If the withdrawal agreement (WA) should, against most observers’ expectations, pass the vote, this would effectively mean the status quo would persist during the transition period until a yet to be negotiated treaty could decide the final shape of Britain’s relations with the EU. For BOND 25’s production this should mean no foreseeable problems, though some of the tax refund bills could end up being affected by this final trade agreement, depending on how this part of the subsidies is handled henceforth.
If, however, the WA doesn’t pass the vote and/or a second/third vote, Britain then has to decide how to proceed from there. By default, the current law is that Britain exits the EU 29. March 2019. If parliament cannot or will not form a majority for an alternative, no snap election, no extension of Art. 50, then Britain leaves without deal. Meaning all bets are off and no previous agreements will continue to have any legally binding effects.
In this case the oft cited ‘WTO terms’ would come into effect. Only, they deal primarily with goods, and only in the broadest possible terms. If it were a desirable basis for a country’s trade policy countries wouldn’t bother negotiating for years and years about specific trade agreements.
I can’t at the moment even tell what specific regulations regarding foreign film productions operating on European soil the members of the EU might or might not chose to apply. There’s a wide range of possibilities and consequently no common ground firm enough to even speculate.
If it comes to a no-deal exit chances are such problems will not even show up on the radar of governments for some time, maybe even years. There would be far more pressing questions to be solved then. In turn this means no insurance company will be able to judge the risk of such a production until the dust has settled.
You can talk to professionals from various branches these days, lawyers, bankers, industrialists, fund managers, politicians, top civil servants, they are all either clueless how that would turn out. Or they already prepare for the worst outcome.
Optimistic voices have become either silent or are very rare indeed since the belief that British politics could manage this conundrum smoothly has dwindled away. The solution on the table is not able to convince a majority, nor any other feasible alternative that’s being floated. It’s possible some bright mind could voice the ideal solution after the commons return from recess - but it’s probably not realistic to expect such an outcome.
So, from this point of view…
Yes, in the worst-case scenario Brexit could have severe effects on BOND 25. Maybe even on further films.
Thanks Dustin. I love the intelligence on CBN.
Ah the great joys of our political system. An expression involving a Piss up and a brewery springs to mind.
In regards to how this specifically effects Bond, it theoretically doesn’t change that much, essentially just leaving Danjaq (as already listed as a private American company) with just a few more pages of work visas to fill out. Danjaq/EON have had to adapt to many different political climates in their 57 years of producing films so, oddly, the James Bond films probably have a more certain future than the country of the UK does at this present second.
The work visas themselves may not even be that big a problem. The work permits and how-many-days in how-many-countries one stays/works on the other hand may be a much more tricky question. When double tax conventions cease to apply this can have serious repercussions on the individual tax models of many industry figures. Some of them use carefully balanced schemes that will effectively turn into confetti on 29. March. That’s nothing new of course, happens all the time especially with tax legislation. But rarely is there absolutely no proper indication what’s going to replace the previous agreement.
Bigger companies and global players usually will find their bearings in time; the brunt of the fallout will be taken by the small and medium sized enterprises who haven’t got the expertise or can’t afford to buy it to get them through the rocky patches of this omnishambles. And many people in the industry are just that, small to medium businesses who work as subcontractors for the bigger fish.
I imagine EON will have a plan B in place should the no deal horror occur.
Maybe they will leave GB and do a Moonraker-like production some place else?
Eon will no doubt find ways to continue its operations. As pointed out above, the company has always had to adapt to various tight spots between rocky and hard places. Eon is Hollywood‘s ambassador to Merry Old Blighty; as a part of Hollywood they will manage their affairs regardless of everyday shambles. The fact that they hibernate for considerable periods between ventures may even help: you just kick off pop up subsidiaries in the regions you want to operate in. This is done all the time, nothing new there.
What Eon won’t like, like every industry, is how this could force them to work people and companies they don’t know yet. Eon, more than most other production companies, works with their family. People they know and trust for years and whose talents they can count on. I suppose if there’s any way to keep their crew together they will want to take that route.
As for no-deal, I am sceptic whether there are any serious plans for that at Eon house. For most of the time during the last two years nobody seriously pursued that outcome. Even the most dogmatic, even the blindly fanatic voices tended to disregard that possibility off the record. I‘ve talked to various people from both sides, over forty. From all of them a total of three considered this the most likely result given the current situation. All three of them civil servants, two European, one Brit. Of course it’s possible I just talked to the wrong people. But if crashing out had been more seriously considered it should have resonated with more people on both sides.
There has been contingency planning, plenty of. Only it wasn’t pursued nearly as earnestly as necessary given the possible drastic results. I‘d say the confidence in the abilities of British politics only really dwindled away in September, when it became apparent the authority left wasn’t enough to set course and negotiate rough waters. After that, nobody really knew how things would go.
It will be most challenging and interesting to see how or if at all BOND 25 reflects the current mood of the country.
I knew something of your ‘real world’ activities, but your breakdown is perhaps the most simple and succinct I’ve read since this whole ‘Empire Strikes Back and wants out’ stuff started three years ago.
Indeed, there’s going to be some sort of ripple effect on all industries within the UK, but film and television will suffer the least outside of whatever union changes may have to be endured or incurred as a result.
Merely speculation on my part, but in my recent visit after Dubai, what little morning and evening news I caught on BBC and Sky seemed to echo this. Granted, it was being largely overshadowed by the pending vote of NC on the PM at the time.
“Christ I miss the Cold War.”
Recent pic of DC in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Daniel looks good. Not long now until he’s back in front of the camera as Bond.
It’ll be nice if he keeps the long hair.
Agreed. That Skyfall crew-cut still keeps me awake at night.
By the way, does anyone think they already have the title of the film in mind yet?
What’s the liikelhood it will be a one-word title like the last two films? Beginning with ‘S’…
But seriously, it must be even odds on Shaterhand.
Exactly my thoughts. Shatterhand is a striking title. And if our theories are correct regarding the plot…