From The Hollywood Reporter’s “Winners and Losers” column:
LOST: Baby Yoda. For weeks, Disney’s The Mandalorian and Grogu has been smelling a bit like Dagobah at low tide. The first Star Wars movie in seven years has struggled to generate excitement (somehow not clearing the low bar of Fandango’s annual poll of 6,000 moviegoers to determine the 10 most anticipated films of the summer). The studio released a clip on Kimmel last week that was mocked for having goofy Book of Boba Fett energy. The clip also suggested the studio is — wisely — going all-in on targeting families and kids instead of aging fans who get pouty if anything labeled “Star Wars” can’t make them feel like they’re 12 again (I mean, guilty as charged).
The film’s early tracking is coming in at $80 million for its four-day Memorial Day weekend release. There is a lot of debate about this number and what it means (THR‘s expert analysis is basically: Good?). The tough-to-avoid comparison is that it’s lower than Disney’s previous weakest Star Wars movie — Solo, which was considered a dud that halted the franchise and sent Star Wars spinning off, like Darth Vader in his crippled TIE fighter, to Disney+ — which, in turn, gave birth to The Mandalorian (the circle, as they say, is now complete).
Expect Disney to point out that The Mandalorian and Grogu costs less than its previous Star Wars efforts at a reported $165 million (Oh? We swear we couldn’t tell!), that this is a great opening for a project based on a TV show (a TV show based decades of blockbuster movies — this isn’t exactly the big screen debut of The Witcher), and that it stars lesser-known characters (as if Jyn Erso was a household name when Rogue One opened to $155 million).
All that said, the film is extremely likely to open higher than $80 million once Disney’s marketing department makes the jump to hyperspace starting on May 4. For three weeks, you’re not going to be able to watch TV, look at your phone, or go outside without seeing a wide-eyed cherubic Baby Yoda peering back at you. The film’s final trailer is its best one yet, and stuffed with John Williams’ iconic theme music from the original trilogy, as if to say: “Look, this really is Star Wars! You’re just not allowed to compare it to Star Wars.”
