In early June, executives at Warner Bros. convened a video meeting with their top filmmaker, Christopher Nolan, and his producer and wife, Emma Thomas, to strategize about the release of his $200 million espionage movie, Tenet , which at the time was due to open July 17. The studio laid out several theoretical scenarios for Nolan, listing likely profits and losses with his movie being released on different dates, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the call. Presented with an economic case for moving Tenet months into the future, when presumably the novel coronavirus would be a more contained threat and box office grosses more reliable, Nolan pushed back. It wasn’t about money, he said, expressing instead the desire to be the first big studio film back in theaters, to show faith in the form and solidarity with exhibitors, when they’re allowed to open and say they’re ready.
In other words:
This entire dog and pony show - including spending money on TV, outdoor and digital ads even if they have to change the dates on them every two weeks - is for struggling cinema chains whose likely eventual demise (in terms of their primacy over the form of how films are release) was just rapidly accelerated by this pandemic. And Nolan strongly believes in said primacy on a philosophical level instead of just financial:
Okay, fair enough…do think he underestimated the level of greed and stupidity that would be displayed by certain members of the species, but I do see where he’s coming from.
I don’t understand, however, how he can be blind to the fact that the pandemic will not be over soon and that audiences going to his revered CINEMAS will risk infection and spreading the virus.
Here in California, 19 of 52 counties had to close all indoor activities for at least three weeks. This includes Los Angeles and most of the large Southern California counties. CDC originally recommended nothing reopen until after three weeks of declining cases. Most states have not followed that advice, even California. Hence, the second surge. Things in the South are so bad they don’t even think they can contact trace anymore.
In other countries–China, France, Germany, UK, Italy–I don’t see people going bonkers in Costcos and Trader Joes about not wearing masks like we have here in America. AMC said they’d open without a mask requirement, then reversed course in 24 hours after social media backlash. It’s not hard, people. The science hasn’t changed on this. I have a friend who opted to buy an RV to drive across country rather than risk an airlines flight.
It’s clear American can’t reopen without a vaccine, or at least a treatment. Simple reasonable behavior adjustments seem beyond our reach. School’s are out and everyone (ready 20 somethings) said, screw it I’m gonna party! So cinema, concerts, maybe even restaurant dining is non-existent in this country for the foreseeable future. Sports too.
MLS had to delay their restart because 5 Nashville players tested positive and FC Dallas had to withdraw because 10 of their players tested positive. Similar things are happening in the NBA and MLB. If well off athletes can’t quarantine in their comfy condos and luxury homes, I mean, how the heck are they contracting it? You can’t quarantine to save your career? For this reason, many athletes who can are opting out of this season.
One can’t really predict things more than a month out, except that it’s safe to say it will be worse, not better, for a considerable while. I don’t expect to see Tenet, Mulan, Wonder Woman 1984, or No Time to Die for another year.
I don’t think WB actually intend on releasing it in the near future, I think WB and the cinema chains (as We’ve heard Nolan has said Nothing himself firsthand about when it should be released, just its format) are just trying to make sure their shareholders don’t start aggressively selling stocks of their respective companies when they’re told “probably no more films to December at the earliest” - As happened to MGM when they delayed NTTD to November.
Because he’s more worried about the cultural ramifications of cinemas going under and losing their primacy as the default medium to see a film - that’s what that Washington Post editorial explains (and in international press interviews for Tenet he’s been pointing to it when asked about this whole issue, and has said he wants to release the film as soon as cinemas reopen).
I’m starting to wonder there: what would be the impact of cinemas losing that ‘primacy’ position?
We are currently talking about the big movers and shakers, the blockbuster films and the megaplex temples of son-et-lumière with 20 or 30 showing rooms - showing a sum total of six or seven films in rotation; usually mainstream fare.
This is a huge economic factor generating jobs and profits and doubtlessly lots of fun too. But it’s a far cry from what cinemas used to be in the 70s or 80s where the entire op was far less economised and streamlined. In terms of cultural significance the modern cinema experience is an increasingly sterile affair made up of so much business economics and industrial management that only little space is left for the actual magic Nolan aims to save by keeping cinemas in business.
For many older folks - and I count here Nolan and my generation too - going to the cinema has long since lost that appeal.
Maybe Nolan suffers from that occupational hazard of simply being too close to the object of his passion - as a director should be - but I doubt he has realised that the proclaimed primacy of consuming cinema fare at the theatre just doesn’t exist for many people any more. And not because of the novel coronavirus or lockdowns but because the system has consumed itself.
If Nolan wasn’t a director (and probably can afford to run a private king sized cinema at each of his homes in the US and wherever he chooses to spend his holidays), wasn’t involved in the industry and practically THE face of the keep-cinemas-alive movement, I’m not sure he would make that many trips to the theatre in any given year - and half of them probably for the sake of the kids and out of sentimental nostalgia.
That Washington Post article explains Nolan’s perspective, and there’s this good piece positing the argument that cinemas losing their primacy may have an effect on the way films are actually made and for what mode of viewing/sort of audience member experience in mind:
But in my opinion (full disclosure - I’m a member of gen Z) - I’m all for the democratisation of viewing modes and cinemas being an option that stays alive not by being the only place to see a new release for 16 weeks, but by providing an experience you can’t replicate in the home. Ironically this is something that Nolan argued for in 2014 - “you don’t go to a concert just to hear an MP3 file”, albeit he believes in the exclusivity on a philosophical level.
But look at the independent and arthouse and boutique side of cinemas. The likes of which have had to contend with the transition to same day VOD viewing years ago for smaller and niche films and how did they compete? Exactly that way. They built an audience there for the experience, and no coincidence that (IMAX aside - as they similarly sell the experience), it’s these sorts of cinemas that have a better overall quality of experience, both in terms of presentation (of the film and the venue) and the audience. And now they’re all over the likes of The Irishman and other films from Netflix and other streamers releasing without the 16 week exclusivity, hell Irishman was the second biggest film for Curzon in the UK (the leading independent/arthouse chain) last year.
A theatrical infrastructure built with that as the bedrock as opposed to exclusivity is gonna improve the experience, I’d reckon. Will there be less cinemas, and will they be more expensive to attend? Probably. The pandemic has laid bare the weaknesses of the multiplex model, between the chicken and egg game surrounding Tenet/Mulan and so on, and overrealiance on concessions posting an actual health risk because no masks as a result. Maybe increased pricing is the answer. But additionally, culturally we’ve been moving to the notion of a day and date global event, regardless of how you consume a piece of culture, for everything for years now. Music, games, books are all there (though not without economic casualties, especially with music). Only a matter of time until film gets there. With theatre, NT Live has began to democratise the process a decade ago, and Disney acquiring Hamilton and releasing it last weekend to crazy success on their streaming service kicked this up a whole notch.
And yet concerts, gigs and vinyl are still around…so will cinemas be, surely.
Some of my fondest memories in the last two decades are seeing major big budget box office blockbusters on preview night–Star Wars 7-9, Lord of the Rings and Hobbit trilogies, Matrix 2&3, Star Trek, Marvel, Batman/TDK, Inception, and of course, Bond. But if I knew someone had a deadly airborne disease in that theater, I wouldn’t go. Seeing the crowd reaction on a Thur/Friday night is community building. Watching Black Panther in Oakland is a memory I won’t soon forget. But COVID-19 is the opposite. It’s like going to an orgy without a condom during AIDS. (sorry for the adult rated comment, but the comparison fits.) Plus the reward of seeing a movie with a few hundred like minded people is far less.
I will more than make up for lost NTTD revenue by buying the CD, poster, DVD/BluRay, (book?), etc. But I will not, and cannot, risk my life and health for a movie. Especially when there’s martinis, scotch and 24 (26?) Bond movies at home.
As a fan site we have a natural understanding of the fans’ wishes to see NO TIME TO DIE as fast as possible at the theatre. As fans we share that urge and would love to see it happen.
But our responsibility is also to urge our members, our fellow fans, our friends and peers to stay safe wherever possible. Out of concern for their own health as much as for that of their neighbours. Everybody has to decide for themselves how they behave. But a couple of hours of entertainment is never worth a wrecked health. And a lost life cannot be brought back.
Keep your contacts to a minimum. Wash your hands. Wear the effing masks.
Of all the issues for Americans to make their “hill to die on” stand, I can’t for the life of me understand why this is it. If you look at the countries that are having the most success with containing the virus, it’s the ones where mask wearing is prevalent and, even to a degree, a part of the culture. You look at many of the countries in Asia, and they’ve successfully stamped out the virus to a considerable degree, and are going about their lives in some manner that reflects something close to where they were in January.
But here, when there’s ample evidence that they can significantly curb the spread of the virus (and one study showed that as many as 33,000 lives could be saved if everyone wore masks), apparently we want a return to normal, but we don’t want it that badly. As always in America, things have to come on our terms, and at this point, masks aren’t a part of that equation. I sincerely hope that, when this sad episode is looked back on in the future, that we as a nation are mortified and embarrassed in the kind of way that leads to lasting and dramatic change in culture. Because this episode has been ridiculously, and needlessly, pathetic.
Jon Stewart said it very well: If you don’t wear masks or wash your hands, then next time, in the operating room tell the surgeon to not do that either because you don’t believe in that stuff.
As for the cinemas - nobody can predict now when they can open again in order to be profitable. So even if TENET or other films are not released on VOD now or in the upcoming months, cinemas will stay closed and finally remain so.
The argument that when cinemas are opened again they need product does not work anymore after all those months since film production is ramping up again. So, Mr. Nolan, make a new fantastic film for the re-opening of cinemas in one or two years, and in the meantime accept the inevitable.
He could make use of his little brother’s new professional partnership and put it on Amazon Prime Video.
…but we do then come to the shareholder panic problem - if the last hold out for the cinematic experience goes VOD, it has a strong possibility of being the proverbial fat ladies 5 minute curtain call.
I don’t see Nolan going the VOD route. He’ll hold out until he can release it in theater, and Warner will go along with it because they will want to work with him again in the future.
