2% of 150M isn’t 30M. It is wrong.
Yup, it’s 3M. Sorry.
Math models today predicted 43 U.S. deaths. It’s 41. Also, 1783 cases, and it’s 1747 confirmed cases. 95% and 98% accurate, barring order of magnitude typos!
Many school districts in the Bay Area announced 2-3 week closures today (i.e. online instruction instead.) New York schools I read, we’re figuring out how to still offer kids meals even if closed.
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Where are you seeing the math model? I’d like to see what they think is ahead. They seem brutally accurate.
For the same reason as the NTTD’s second delay - distributor thought the later date would make more money.
I believe all of Ohio and Maryland schools are closed and several schools here in New Orleans are closed as well with the rest in Orleans Parish likely to follow very soon. We have 19 confirmed cases in Louisiana, 16 of which are in New Orleans. Additionally, several states are blaming their cases on people who came to New Orleans for Mardi Gras. Likely the figure is a lot higher, but with the inadequate testing available, we have no way of knowing.
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I suppose everything depends on if and how much the Covid spread slows in the warmer months of the northern hemisphere. This is a reasonable assumption but need not be as much as hoped for. If it’s not the case by, say, July or August, then probably everything regarding public events in 2020 is up in the air.
At worst all these things will have to pause until a reliable vaccine is available on a large scale. Let’s all hope for the best.
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This site tracks live data daily, by country, cases, deaths, recoveries, etc.:
As for predictions, I pasted these numbers into a Google spreadsheet and did an exponential best fit curve. That file is at work, but I’ll work on one to post here by the weekend. The equation was something like 3.99e^(0.21t), where e is natural log base 2.718 and t is # of days.
Yesterday morning the U.S. cases were 1301 and the forecast was 1783. I don’t remember the case forecasts, but for U.S. deaths the totals for the next three days are 50, 58, and 68-71 by Monday.
Currently the tracker says 1832 cases and 41 deaths.
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As more school districts close, that puts downward pressure on neighboring districts to follow suit. Otherwise, they become breeding grounds for the virus. At this point, there is community spread so people blaming the disease vector on travelers is neither helpful or productive, let alone true.
Keep in mind, with low levels of testing, we really have no idea of who has it, how many, or where. But the virus is in the neighborhood, if not your backyard, and knocking on the door.
Case in point: Charles Barkley. I love the man dearly for his sense of humor and basketball commentary, but I had mentioned that when he was on Stephen Colbert when asked how coronavirus has affected him, he replied, “Not at all.” Then went on to explain how “people have to live their lives” and go see basketball games, etc. Within 48 hours, the NBA suspended their season, and March Madness got canceled, so Barkley is without work (though I’m sure his contract still pays him.) Then this morning he announced that he is “self quarantining” as he came ill when he returned to Atlanta.
It seems when someone says something misinformed or makes a joke (Rudy Gobert touching microphones), the virus responds, “hold my beer.”
It doesn’t care about politics, income, or celebrity. Practice good hygiene and stay safe, humble, and informed.
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In Ontario, all public schools are closed for the next 3 weeks - one week for March Break, and two additional weeks as a health precaution. Our Prime Minister’s wife has just been diagnosed with COVID 19, and Trudeau himself is in 14 day isolation as a result. And just like everywhere else, Parliament is currently considering closing its borders. EON certainly got ahead of the curve, as I don’t see many theatres staying open for much longer anyway.
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I dunno, it does seem to be trolling people who doubt it, so it clearly has a sense of humour.
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The tracking is another issue. Depending on how available tests actually are, how fast they are processed and how quickly the results arrive at the respective authorities these figures can be anything between three and ten days old - the tracking doesn’t happen in real-time; it always reflects the official numbers of the past.
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A MAJOR flaw in the system.
A little bit of levity this morning from a friend of mine. He appreciates Bond but isn’t as devoted as all of us. He texted me. I guess he had been watching DAF.
“Whatever’s happening Mister Bryce has started… and your friend with the cat is behind it.”
If only it were that simple. Gave me a much needed laugh though.
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Today the U.S. total deaths recorded was indeed 50. The case forecast was 2235 but it hit 2291 a bit ago. Tomorrow there will probably be 2801 U.S. cases and 58 deaths. Here are the equations used:
Total deaths = 22.6e^(0.158t) where t is days since February 15th.
Total cases = 3.51e^(2.36t) and e is natural log base 2.71828…
Over the last three days these equations have averaged almost 99% accuracy.
As for delays in testing and how many are actually infected with it now, a study on the cruise ship suggested an actual death rate of 0.5% (instead of the 2-3.4%.) If that’s the case, there are over 13,000 in the U.S. infected with it right now. That won’t be forecasted until March 21st, so yes we’re looking at data about a week behind the live actual data.
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Is it helpful to put up those numbers here?
For information on the crisis let‘s go to the appropriate channels, please.
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From now thru April 30th AMC Theaters are only selling up to a max of 50% capacity with a limit of 250.
Bad time to release a movie.
Sounds like an umbrella in a hurricane
Kite…?
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No, umbrella!
A kite would be out of control, whereas an umbrella is pointless.
But the paraphrasing was intentional, so well spotted 
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