An umbrella would be pointless and out of control.
2 Likes
Unless youāre Mary Poppins
1 Like
I was responding to Hockeymaskās question about the math, and Dustinās and theSpectreās discussion of the time lapse in the reporting system on the worldometers site I posted earlier.
This thread does on occasion veer off topic, however EON were the first to take a major proactive response to this crisis, albeit as much for economic as for health reasons, so the corona virus is sort of implied in the name of this thread. But I shall not post those numbers again now that Iāve posted the equations and the data link. Do check how accurate they are later today.
The numbers are meant not to scare, but to inform and educate, especially for those (like that youtube poster and some elected officials) that did not understand how quickly this sort of exponential growth rapidly spins out of control. Financial analysts call this sort of math model the most powerful force on the planet. Weāre seeing that power this last week.
So it will probably keep growing at this rate for at least another week until our enacted measures begin to reflect in the data, i.e. āflatten the curve.ā How does this integrate into this topic then? Thatās where Black Widow comes in. Thatās the one major movie that hasnāt been postponed yet. Itās current release date is May 1st. Most everything else is shut down or suspended through the rest of March, and some extending into weeks in April. AMC has announced reduction to 50% capacity in each of their theaters. So either Disney knows something we donāt, or they havenāt looked at it analytically. The fact that they waited so long to postpone Mulan, and indefinitely at that, suggests the latter. With Black Widow being part of the MCU, delaying the release date 7 months like NTTD then butts up against The Eternals, and sets off a domino effect of moving other MCU release dates. They could slot Black Widow into FF9ās original release date of May 21 as FF9 got delayed a year, an option not available to Black Widow. But that only gets them an extra three weeks. Will we have flattened the curve by then and have things return somewhat to normal? Youād have to look at South Koreaās success at that. Unfortunately, the U.S. is lagging in tests per million. Not sure how testing is in Europe, but their sports leagues (Premiere, Bundesliga soccer) have suspended games for a month as some of their players and a manager have tested positive.
The other thing Disney/Marvel might be factoring in is the pent up demand for movies once logistics resource limitations kick in and an inflection point shows up in the curve plotting cases. That may be an entirely moot point in a week, let alone a month. The one thing Disney does have an advantage with is they have control of probably half of all release dates with their acquisition of Fox so can coordinate their releases. EON had very limited options and so procured Thanksgiving before anyone else could. And if itās still going on then, they could always delay into 2021. Or what if NTTD became EONās 60th anniversary Bond movie?
At first I was understanding of the NTTD postponed release, but now Iām proud of being a fan of Bond for its producers took the first major proactive step, a week before the NBA even, as that demonstrated how serious this was bound to get.
4 Likes
Speaking of ā¦
Note the article was published just 3 hours ago.
Also, with productions suspended for The Falcon and Winter Soldier (and all Netflix shows), this is an appealing idea. Remember how many people watched Birdbox on Netflix a year ago? If ticket sales equate to new Disney+ subscriptions, maybe thatās what Disney is thinking. It would be very proactive and precedent setting, and also afford the opportunity for fans in China and Italy and other affected regions to see it along with the rest of the world.
2 Likes
Thereās lots of stuff I just donāt get to see, and wonāt see for a long time if ever, because itās on Disney Plus or Amazon Prime. Iām simply not signing up to all of these services.
Iām signed up to a couple but I actually watch only very occasionally. Thereās simply an enormous lack of time in an ordinary human life to watch it all, seasons upon seasons with countless episodes, horizontally arranged plotlines, sometimes āfillerā or āartisticā episodes - even if you needed not to work and could spend all day in front of the telly it would still not be enough to watch it all.
So I concentrate on just a few things and leave the rest alone.
3 Likes
While I would love to see NTTD (and other films) now in the comfort of my home, it presents a huge problem for the future of cinemas. They actually need those blockbusters when they open again. To have Disney put their films on their streaming services reeks of ice cold profit thinking, IMO.
3 Likes
Showbiz Cheat Sheet is click bait central, so take with a hefty pinch of salt. Iām sure moving Black Widow to their streaming platform been discussed, however, the rescheduling of film releases is not quite as much of an issue for Disney/Marvel as it has been for others, as they demonstrated with the reshuffling of GOTG Vol 3 and the surprise addition of Spider-Man to their scheduleā¦twice.
2 Likes
Studios and cinemas need one another. There are vast profits to be made from streaming - but nowhere near as yet as from the entire run of the value chain from cinemas to Blu-ray to on-demand. The cinemas need the blockbusters - and the blockbusters need the cinemas. If they should crumble under the weight of forced closures for monthsā¦then the entire system will swiftly follow.
1 Like
I should say, Iām liking the insight, not what the insight demonstratesā¦which is horrifying in some ways.
They have released Frozen 2 early on Disney+, and though not yet on their service, Rise of Skywalker is also available early as a digital release. I generally agree with all of your opinions on this.
However, Black Widow is a bit of a unique MCU release. Itās not a franchise starter (sorry, Yelena), given the fate of Natasha in Endgame, but more of an epilogue, albeit still sort of a midquel. I wouldnāt be surprised if BW becomes a test case for streaming, with Disney+ essentially being its theatrical run. Nor is it a standalone in the universe, so it has to be released sooner rather than later. The fact that they didnāt delay it along with Mulan and New Mutants (which at this point probably should be a streaming release) tells me theyāre thinking of something different for Black Widow.
Star power, but, yes, if they were going to test MCU films coming first on streaming, this is the one. There is definitely no sequel.
Optics, unfortunately, and please know I hate myself for using the word, would say they wonāt undermine their second female led film by making it only slightly better than straight to video.
Please know I hated every word in the previous paragraph, as it is the sort of arrogant superiority that would make you want to break the speakers nose, if you were the one on the receiving end.
1 Like
I was not impressed by the trailers for BLACK WIDOW so far. It could still be the best Marvel film yet, of course, but it could also be the film that Disney anticipated (before this new situation) to have less appeal than the films from the previous phases.
So it could actually be a thought right now to use the advantage of a pulled cinema release and give Disney + one more attraction, sparing themselves the embarrassment of an underperforming Marvel film starting the new phase of films which no one can expect to have the grosses they had grown accustomed to.
I feel it should be stated that this is 2 pros doing a āWhat ifā¦ā
Itās a marker for the constant doubt that people whoāve actually been paid to work in this field, WILL be thinking.
And, as writers, me and @secretagentfan will be the very last consulted.
3 Likes
Excellent post. Very interesting and well-written.
If Black Widow was to release on Disney+, it would be a big boon for the channel, but most importantly, if the US and UK go into lockdown, the public would literally be a captive audience. Word of mouth could spread via phone and internet too.
But only to those already sold on the Marvel brand. Disney would be selling their entire streaming service on how much people spoke to the cinematic marketing campaign - do bear in mind Disney+ is a flat rate in a way cinema ticket prices are not. Itās apples to oranges, so flip a coin as to whether it could even match the potential intake of a cinema viewing.
1 Like
Also, one might add: isnāt all this premature?
Letās all relax, people - that should be the message. Right now, precautions have to be taken to flatten the curve of new infections. Thatās the only reason why the shutdowns are called for. The upcoming month should be used to stay home as much as possible. Then we will see how things are developing.
So, whatever you wanted to do at home but never got around to it - now is the time.
As for us writers, Orion, we could actually get some work doneā¦
7 Likes
Iād argue BLACK WIDOW has been a missed opportunity anyway. Fans have been clamouring for years for a solo film for her. Doing it after the Avengersā run is over was more of an afterthought than a real all-in stunt. Iām not a huge Marvel fan so my impression is not terribly important - but I really think the trailer hasnāt shown anything extraordinary, nothing that would make me absolutely want to see it in theatres.
So if they cancelled the theatrical run it would likely be the least damage with BLACK WIDOW. But damage it will be nonetheless. Andā¦
As a model for the future you can be absolutely sure the fifth floor top brass of any studio is going to make up a simple equation: smaller screen = smaller scale = smaller budget. Whether thatās true or not, the basic industry mechanics would be altered significantly.
2 Likes
Production of new content is getting halted everywhere:
Another article claims Rise of Skywalker is on Disney+, but I donāt see it yet. However, with Disneyās parks closed down, their revenue from streaming becomes more important.
I am finding discussing this topic a healthy diversion from the news.